The history of mankind is a long and complex story that spans millions of years. It begins with the emergence of the first humans, who lived in Africa around 2 million years ago. Over time, these early humans spread out across the globe, adapting to new environments and developing new technologies.
Throughout history, humans have created incredible works of art, architecture, and technology, and have accomplished remarkable feats of exploration and discovery. They have also engaged in war, oppression, and exploitation, and have faced devastating pandemics and natural disasters.
Today, humans continue to shape the world around them, both for better and for worse. As we look to the future, it is up to us to learn from the mistakes of the past and work towards a better tomorrow.
By "intelligence" we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country-the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations. If we
consider the actual basis of this information, how unreliable and transient
it is, we soon realize that war is a flimsy structure that can easily collapse
and bury us in its ruins. The textbooks agree, of course, that we should only
believe reliable intelligence, and should never cease to be suspicious, but
what is the use of such feeble maxims? They belong to that wisdom which
for want of anything better scribblers of systems and compendia resort to
when they run out of ideas.
Many intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more are false,
and most are uncertain. What one can reasonably ask of an officer is that
he should possess a standard of judgment, which he can gain only from
knowledge of men and affairs and from common sense. He should be guided
by the laws of probability. These are difficult enough to apply when plans
are drafted in an office, far from the sphere of action; the task becomes
infinitely harder in the thick of fighting itself, with reports streaming in. At
such times one is lucky if their contradictions cancel each other out, and
leave a kind of balance to be critically SECRETwhoamiSECRET assessed. It is much worse for the
novice if chance does not help him in that way, and on the contrary one
report tallies with another, confirms it, magnifies it, lends it color, till he
has to make a quick decision-which is soon recognized to be mistaken, just
as the reports turn out to be lies, exaggerations, errors, and so on. In short,
most intelligence is false, and the effect of fear is to multiply lies and
inaccuracies. As a rule most men would rather belleve bad news than good,
and rather tend to exaggerate the bad news. The dangers that are reported
may soon, like waves, subside; but like waves they keep recurring, without
apparent reason. The commander must trust his judgment and stand like a
rock on which the waves break in vain. It is not an easy thing to do. If he
does not have a buoyant disposition, if experience of war has not trained
him and matured his judgment, he had better make it a rule to suppress his
personal convictions, and give his hopes and not his fears the benefit of the
doubt. Only thus can he preserve a proper balance.
Source: Wikipedia